BCSC forecasts long-term retail vacancy rate of 11%
The BCSC, now holding the final day of its exhibition and conference in Manchester, says more than one in 10 UK shops could remain vacant in the long term. In its report, ‘Empty Shops – What does the future hold for town centres?’ the BCSC says this would set a new benchmark for empty retail units of 11%, compared with an average of 6%-7% before 2007.
The BCSC forecasts that retail vacancy rates will reach 13%-14% by 2014 before falling to around 11% in the longer term. It says changes in demographics, the rise in internet retailing and the growth of supermarkets are the key reasons for the rising trend in the retail vacancy rate, as well as the current economic conditions. It also identifies the expansion of space within shopping centres since the 1980s, with tenancies on 25-year leases, as a factor in its forecasts.
Faced with this structural problem, the BCSC says its research is attempting to ‘move the debate on’, focusing instead on how vacant retail units can be brought back into use in the long term, or be put to alternative uses. It is calling on communities, businesses and local government to be creative in using empty space and is asking the government to make a strong commitment to town centres as a focus for investment as part of its proposed National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF).
BCSC president Richard Akers says the current business rates regime is a barrier to retail growth, and says it must be reviewed “if retail businesses are to survive and compete with rising online sales on an even footing”. He also argues that the requirement to pay rates on empty properties, on even the smallest units, is hindering owners’ investment in their properties and thus prospects for redevelopment.
At its conference and exhibition, the BCSC says various property planners and developers have raised concerns about the Town Centres First principle in the NPPF. Ian Anderson, senior director for planning at CBRE, wants the framework’s reference to a town-centre approach ‘where practical’ to be strengthened, in order to defend these centres against out-of-town interests and ‘to avoid the spectre of planning through the courts’. He feels that unless policy is unequivocal on this issue, it may lead to further debate and delay via appeals and judicial reviews, which would hinder attempts to speed up planning policy in the UK.
Edward Cooke, executive director at BCSC, added: “We would like to see a much stronger focus on town centres from the NPPF, in order to direct investment in town centres, where it is most needed, and ensure it is inherently sustainable.”
