The rate of expansion by commercial developers in February was the fastest seen since May 2007, according to a survey by Savills. The report says that commercial developers signalled an overall increase in development activity during February, partly due to a rebound from weather-related weakness in January, but also as a result of better economic conditions. Most of the growth in activity related to development taking place in the private sector rather than the public sector, Savills says.
Savills says that about 28% of the respondents to its survey indicated a rise in total commercial activity in February, compared with 11% reporting a decline. As a result, the group’s Total Commercial Development Activity Index was a positive 16.9% for February, following a reading of minus 2.4% for January.
Respondents were positive about the outlook for commercial development activity in the next quarter, although business sentiment was slightly weaker than the long-run series average, and the lowest since July 2009. Developers were most confident about the outlook for industrial and warehouse projects, and the least positive about prospects for office developments. Growth expectations were linked to improving client demand for commercial property for sale and to let, although some firms noted that the upcoming general election had created some uncertainty about public-sector projects, Savills noted.
Cushman & Wakefield reports that more than 10% of UK shops are now available to let or vacant, with sharp differences between regions.
As of February 1, the company’s Retail Availability survey shows 10.7% vacancies overall, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter, when temporary lettings before Christmas boosted the results. However, this latest figure is well below the August 2009 peak of 12.6%.
London remains the most polarised regional market, with availability in the centre of the capital at 7.9% while the suburbs recorded the highest regional figure, at 17.4%. Outer London now has the highest percentage of shop units linked to administration at 5.75%, an increase of 0.4% points in the past three months. Many regional centres in outer London have also been affected by the opening of Westfield London and the expansion and improved retail offering of Brent Cross, Cushman & Wakefield notes.
While prime, high-profile shopping streets in Central London appear immune from the pressures seen elsewhere, more secondary areas continue to suffer. Cushman & Wakefield describes this as a “flight to quality and dominance”.
Overall, the Midlands has seen the highest increase in availability, rising 1.7 points to now stand at 12.1%. Birmingham still has the highest availability in the region, with Nottingham the lowest at 8.7%. This region does, however, have among the lowest vacancy rates in the UK linked to retailer administrations, which Cushman & Wakefield says is evidence that it has now seen the worst impact of the recession on its central retail area.
Lord Adair Turner, chairman of the Financial Services Authority, this week told a parliamentary committee that a crackdown on commercial property lending is needed. He said that more work needed to be done to increase loan rates or tighten borrowing terms, to ensure that money flows into more “useful” sectors.
He said: “A quite startling percentage of UK credit extension to the non-financial corporate sector in the last 20 years has been to commercial real estate.”
“Although some of that new urban development, new office development, new retail development is part of the value-creative process of society, some of it is not to do with new investment but is simply leveraging of assets to take advantage of the tax deductibility of interest payments,” he added.
Turner said that in contrast to property, sectors such as manufacturing accounted for as much in deposits to UK banks as they took out in loans.
The Economist commented that Turner has been outspoken about the need for banking reforms following the credit crunch, and noted that the commercial property sector together with home loans attracts 80% of all bank loans to non-financial borrowers in Britain. In future, banks might face differential capital charges depending on which sector they lend to, in the hope of channelling cash into sectors that promise steadier growth. This is not a new measure: Indian, Canadian and Hong Kong regulators do it already, The Economist notes.
But Turner has stopped short of calling for more radical measures, it points out, and if the opposition Conservative Party wins the forthcoming general election it has pledged to return banking supervision to the Bank of England, leaving the FSA heavily circumscribed.
After a slower than expected start to 2010, the CB Richard Ellis Monthly Index for commercial property showed an acceleration in capital growth for February. Capital values rose by 1.4% last month, producing total returns for All Property of 2.0%.
The best performing sector in February was Central London offices, with total returns of 2.6% and capital growth of 2.1%. Shopping centres also did well, with total returns of 2.4% and capital growth of 1.8%. CB Richard Ellis says this sector is finally enjoying some catch-up after a very weak 2009.
Overall, rental values continued to decline, with an All Property fall of 0.2% suggesting that occupier markets remain under pressure, the group says. However, the flat rental growth reported for Central London offices in February indicates that occupier demand in the capital is stronger.
Nick Parker, CB Richard Ellis economics and forecasting analyst, commented: “Whilst it was prime yields that came back in most aggressively in the latter half of last year, it is the better secondary markets that are slowly starting to attract interest at the beginning of 2010, with investors beginning to look further up the risk curve in a hunt for better returns. It is widely expected that the yield gap between prime and secondary property will slowly narrow over 2010 as competition for good secondary assets becomes more heated.”
UK regional office take-up fell 20% in 2009 compared with the previous year, according to DTZ Research. The latest market update for nine UK cities, reported by the Western Mail, shows that take-up fell on aggregate across all nine key regional office markets in the fourth quarter of last year, as expected. This followed some exceptional deals in Q3, particularly in Birmingham and Nottingham, which boosted take-up sharply in that quarter.
The report quotes Rhys James, senior director at DTZ’s Cardiff office, as saying that 2010 looks like being another competitive year “in which landlords will need to work very hard and be particularly generous and flexible if they are to attract new tenants and if they are to retain their existing tenants.”
The report notes that occupiers in 2009 were able to take advantage of the market conditions to consolidate their accommodation or to upgrade to better-quality or more efficient floorspace, while maintaining or cutting costs.
DTZ Research forecasts that take-up in 2010 will be down a further 13% compared with the outturn for 2009, which itself is around 40% lower than the market peak in 2007.
Some further consolidation and release of unwanted space is expected in the UK regional office market, particularly in the banking and insurance sectors, but at a slower rate than in 2009. Availability is likely to have peaked, or will peak, in the first half of 2010 for most markets, the report says, especially as the development pipeline is now more or less exhausted. Headline rents, after falling for several quarters, are expected to remain stable or experience only modest further declines, DTZ adds.
At the BCSC Shopping Centre Management Conference being held this week, speakers have referred to a range of reasons for caution about the short-term outlook for retail property in the UK. However, they have also stated their belief that brighter horizons (the title of the property forum) are not far off, with better times expected in 2011.
At the Bournemouth event, Professor Joshua Bamfield, director of the Centre for Retail Research, predicted slow and steady sales value growth in 2010 overall, but accelerating growth in 2011, reaching 3.4% for the year. He also expects Christmas 2010 to be good for the retail sector, pointing to high personal savings rates in the UK and an improving housing market.
If you are seeking retail premises for sale or to let, or are looking to market your retail properties, then contact Chris at Novaloca.com on 01767 313 380.
A UK commercial property investment fund has sounded a note of caution about pricing in the short term. Investment Week says that Ignis issued a briefing note to investors in its £510m UK Property Fund last week, advising that there is potential for a short-term disconnect between capital value growth and rental value growth.
It said that prime yields ran the risk of over-correcting in the short term, leading to a “moderate retrenchment” in capital values. Ignis says the situation has been made worse by the current lack of high-quality commercial properties available to buy in the market. At the moment 20% of the fund is held in cash.
However, in the medium term the company remains “very positive” towards the commercial property market and expects returns of 8% to 9% per annum over this range. It also expects returns to remain positive in the short term.
CB Richard Ellis says prime yields in the Northern Ireland commercial property market remain stable, although transactions are currently limited to very small lot sizes in towns in the region.
In its bi-monthly review of the Irish commercial property market, CB Richard Ellis notes that attention has recently been focused on the set-up of the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) in the Republic of Ireland, with many transactions on hold while awaiting the set-up and initial operations of this entity. NAMA is designed to take over and run poorly-performing property development loans from the country’s banks with the aim of improving the availability of credit in the Irish economy. The due diligence process is well underway on those loans on Northern Ireland commercial properties that are due to move over to NAMA, CB Richard Ellis notes.
The forthcoming general election in the UK and the possible effects of public-sector cost-cutting are the major unknowns for the Northern Ireland commercial property market at this point, the report notes. CB Richard Ellis also points out that the question of reducing corporation tax in Northern Ireland has recently been raised – this would clearly give the local economy a huge boost and in turn help the property market in the region, “particularly considering the competitive rents and labour costs relative to the Republic.”
The US National Association of Realtors has published its outlook for the commercial property market there and it doesn’t make for very happy reading. The NAR, a vast trade association with more than a million members, says that the fourth quarter of 2009 remained affected by the recession, but it does have some hopes of improvement in 2011.
The NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, expects rising demand for office space and industrial properties as the job market improves – but not until next year. He also expects stronger consumer confidence in 2011 to boost the market for retail property to let.
The NAR’s report, published on Tuesday, includes details of how the organisation sees the office, retail and industrial sectors of the commercial property market in the US.
Oliver Whitehead, chairman of property investment and development group Minerva, says that there is “real and growing evidence to show that we have now passed the cyclical low in the commercial property market.”
Whitehead was speaking as Minerva reported half-year results today, showing growth in its investment property valuation of 9.7%, compared with a decline of 26.5% a year earlier. Its trading property valuation jumped 12.2% (2008: down 7.7%).
Property highlights during the six months to December 2009 included activity at two properties in the City of London. Minerva noted it had pre-leased 145,000 sq ft of the St Botolph Building to the law firm Clyde & Co at £48 per sq ft on a 20-year lease with upward-only rent reviews and no break clause. The group added that about 45% of the office space in this building is now pre-let. Minerva also achieved practical completion on its Walbrook Building earlier this month and says it is confident that the building will be let on attractive terms, given the extremely limited supply of new office space in the City.
Development activity jumps in February
The rate of expansion by commercial developers in February was the fastest seen since May 2007, according to a survey by Savills. The report says that commercial developers signalled an overall increase in development activity during February, partly due to a rebound from weather-related weakness in January, but also as a result of better economic conditions. Most of the growth in activity related to development taking place in the private sector rather than the public sector, Savills says.
Savills says that about 28% of the respondents to its survey indicated a rise in total commercial activity in February, compared with 11% reporting a decline. As a result, the group’s Total Commercial Development Activity Index was a positive 16.9% for February, following a reading of minus 2.4% for January.
Respondents were positive about the outlook for commercial development activity in the next quarter, although business sentiment was slightly weaker than the long-run series average, and the lowest since July 2009. Developers were most confident about the outlook for industrial and warehouse projects, and the least positive about prospects for office developments. Growth expectations were linked to improving client demand for commercial property for sale and to let, although some firms noted that the upcoming general election had created some uncertainty about public-sector projects, Savills noted.